Will housing prices drop in Calgary?

Just a few days ago the Calgary Real Estate Board released its annual Forecast Report, where the board’s economists provide their analysis and insight into how they think the Calgary real estate market will respond to the economic conditions affecting our market for the rest of the year. The Forecast Report is an excellent resource that is relied upon by countless businesses and public institutions that touch the Calgary real estate industry, so in addition to our regular monthly sales update I will also delve into the report and provide my thoughts on their outlook.

In last month’s report we made the case that the overall pricing picture for Calgary real estate hasn’t changed that much, with pricing hovering around the low $570,000 mark since August of 2023. 

Even though CREB does a great job with their analysis and reporting – and believe me, you will want to stay tuned for what we have to say about the Forecast Report – I do wish that CREB would report their pricing comparisons a little differently.

CREB compares the most recent month’s sales statistics with the statistics from exactly one year prior. So, January 2024 gets compared with the market conditions from January 2023. And when you do that, the story becomes “Prices have increased 10%!” 

But that doesn’t really tell active buyers and sellers what they really need to know, which is that pricing has been FLAT for the last six months. That’s right, we’ve had no price growth for the last half-year in the Calgary real estate market. 

The average price of all sales in Calgary in January was $572,300, basically the exact same price that’s been reported for the last six months. This is a far cry from double digit price growth, so sellers need to be mindful not to shoot for the moon when they put their houses on the market.

So, what does the Calgary Real Estate Board think? 

CREB looks at many factors when making their sales and pricing forecasts for the year. They do a proper job of it, too, taking into consideration macro-economic factors such as provincial GDP growth, employment growth, international and interprovincial net migration, interest rates and a metric that will be under the spotlight a lot more in Calgary: housing starts. Considering all these factors, CREB is forecasting that the Calgary real estate market is going to hit the repeat button on last year’s performance, with a nearly identical set of numbers. 

Prices are expected to increase by approximately 6.6% over 2023’s numbers and sales are expected to equal last year’s figures at just under 28,000 sales for the year. 

If you’d like to discuss any of these variables further or you are considering a move here? We can help! Feel free to contact us directly at 403-809-2903 or email info@CalgaryHG.com